SPC AC 010728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into
   Saturday morning over parts of the central Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Friday, a shortwave trough will quickly exit the upper MS Valley
   and move into Ontario, as a secondary wave moves east into the
   northern High Plains. To the south, moderate high-level winds will
   persist from Mexico into TX.

   At the surface, high pressure will move across the central and
   northern Plains and into the upper and middle MS Valley behind the
   ejecting shortwave trough, leaving a boundary roughly from the OH
   Valley into the southern Plains during the day. South of this
   boundary, a moist air mass will remain.

   Another cold front will move into the central Plains late in the day
   and overnight, in association with the High Plains shortwave trough.
   This front will eventually interact with low-level moisture as
   southerly winds increase late across the Plains in response to the
   upper wave.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   Strong heating will occur from western into central TX, generally
   west of the more robust low-level moisture which will gradually move
   westward due to easterly winds, then mix out. Little convergence
   will exist to support storm development, although the air mass will
   become uncapped and unstable. As such, isolated strong storms cannot
   be ruled out during the peak heating hours over northwest TX, and
   perhaps into the TX Panhandle or western OK as the front lifts north
   late.

   A greater probability of storms will occur along the cold front
   overnight as it intercepts the unstable air mass from eastern CO
   across KS and into northwest OK by 12Z Saturday. Modest 25-35 kt
   westerlies at 500 mb along with 30+ kt southerly winds at 850 mb may
   support a linear MCS, with areas of damaging wind gusts and hail.
   Given uncertainties, a 5% risk area is prudent.

   ..Jewell.. 05/01/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z