SPC AC 011730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OK
   INTO NORTHWEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from
   parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A relatively deep upper-level trough will persist over the
   western/central CONUS on Thursday. Within the broader cyclonic flow,
   multiple embedded shortwaves will move east-northeastward, both
   within the main belt of flow across the central Plains into the
   upper Great Lakes, and also within a southern stream across TX. The
   surface pattern will be complicated by widespread overnight into
   morning convection, but in general, a cold front is forecast to be
   aligned from southwest TX toward parts of the Midwest. One surface
   wave may move from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes
   region, while another weak surface low may persist across west TX. 

   While a rather broad and moist warm sector will support pockets of
   severe potential on Thursday, uncertainty remains high due to
   multiple rounds of extensive antecedent convection across the Great
   Plains region.  

   ...Southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley...
   An MCS may be ongoing over east/southeast TX Thursday morning. Some
   severe potential may accompany this system near the upper TX to LA
   Gulf Coast, and perhaps as far east as the lower MS Valley.

   In the wake of the morning MCS, an outflow boundary may extend
   across into parts of central/north TX, while the cold front to the
   north is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves southeastward
   across parts of OK into northwest TX. A dryline is forecast to
   extend into southwest TX. Depending on the magnitude of diurnal
   heating and outflow modification, isolated to widely scattered storm
   development will be possible near all of these boundaries during the
   afternoon/evening. Modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will support
   sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, especially
   where low-level flow remains backed. 

   Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong
   destabilization wherever stronger heating can occur. Isolated
   supercell development will be possible initially, with a threat of
   large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter) and
   possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage,
   modest upscale growth will be possible, with an attendant threat of
   at least isolated damaging gusts. 

   A Slight Risk has been added from southwest OK into northwest TX,
   where the best potential for strong diurnal destabilization is
   currently expected, though uncertainty remains regarding storm
   coverage in this area.  

   ...Parts of MO into the upper MS Valley...
   Uncertainty is high in this region as well, with some potential for
   an MCS to be ongoing across parts of IA/MO/northwest IL during the
   morning. An isolated damaging wind risk could accompany this system
   in the morning, with some potential for redevelopment in its wake as
   a weak surface wave moves toward the upper Great Lakes region.
   Destabilization may be limited in the wake of morning convection,
   but sufficient deep-layer shear and a moderate low-level jet will
   support some potential for organized convection, and a couple
   stronger cells/clusters could develop during the afternoon. While a
   Marginal Risk has been maintained across this region, a corridor of
   somewhat greater severe potential could evolve Thursday afternoon,
   depending on the evolution of morning convection and recovery in its
   wake.

   ..Dean.. 05/01/2024

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