(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010903
SPC AC 010903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous
thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from
the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F
dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly
surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow
will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western
upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall
severe potential through Sunday/D5.
For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in
depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and
emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains
with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry
differences exist amongst the models, the combination of
strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample
moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe
probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of
severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells,
squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
..Jewell.. 05/01/2024
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