SPC AC 012014

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON 
   AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe
   thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central
   Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and
   northwest/west-central Texas.

   ...20Z Update...
   Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account
   for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon.
   Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of
   west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual
   MCS development will be possible. 

   The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite
   evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently
   confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and
   northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from
   southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS,
   where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. 

   Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution
   along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development
   will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat
   of all severe hazards. 

   Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across
   central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an
   organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the
   period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected
   to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this
   convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE
   will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe
   gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and
   MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from
   southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. .

   ..Dean.. 05/01/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/

   ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle...
   Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a
   remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward
   through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK.  It is
   unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon,
   or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. 
   Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from
   southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and
   interact with the remnant boundary.  Supercells capable of very
   large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this
   corridor through the early evening.  There is a chance of a strong
   tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to
   increase tornado probabilities at this time.

   ...West TX...
   Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX,
   leading to scattered intense storm development.  Initial discrete
   supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes,
   but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance,
   which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward
   through the evening.

   ...Central TX today and tonight...
   A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central
   TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s.  Scattered afternoon
   thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where
   sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote
   organized/supercell structures.  Given the abundant low-level
   theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is
   possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds.  

   Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and
   track into central TX.  A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind
   max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of
   damaging winds overnight.

   ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight...
   Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark
   over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave
   trough.  This activity will spread eastward overnight, with
   sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in
   the stronger cores.

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