ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302111

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the
   northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the
   western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated
   jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next
   week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the
   southern High Plains.

   ...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico...
   Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on
   Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains.
   Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity
   in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather
   conditions are likely.

   ...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains...
   Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a
   strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the
   weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will
   increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the
   well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains
   considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and
   character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor
   strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and
   GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very
   strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical
   probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for
   Day8/Tuesday.

   ..Bentley.. 04/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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